Ekiti 2026: Why Oyebanji’s Landslide Victory is Certain

By Wole Olujobi

As the October 27, 2025 Ekiti State governorship primary election draws closer, political watchers are afoot painting various scenarios in the crunch intra-party ballot to pick the All Progressives Congress (APC)’s candidate for the June 20, 2026 governorship election in the state.

In a race that will draw no fewer than five candidates from different political parties, tension is high on where the victory swings among the aspirants, as members of APC, PDP, SDP, Labour Party and ADC strategise to ensure victory for their preferred candidates in their intra-party ballots.

While not much is heard about intra-party primary election politics in PDP, SDP, Labour Party and ADC, hence no match for the ruling party APC, intense politicking has overwhelmed APC in the camps of two top contenders, as supporters of Governor Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji (BAO) and Engr Kayode Ojo, strategise to ensure the success of their principals ahead of the primaries. (This opinion is now belated after Ojo was disqualified by APC National leaders a few hours after writing this article).
As the second term primary poll is a marathon race that spans years and months, earlier starters are the governor and Ojo, while the third aspirant, Omolayo Oluremi, started of recent.
But between Oyebanji and any other aspirant, the governor looms large ahead considering the pre-primary political indices that will determine the fate of the standard bearer in APC primaries. So far, Oyebanji, apart from being the incumbent governor that controls the levers of power, has many pluses going for him ahead of his closest rival.

First, all former APC governors and governors elected under opposition political platforms, namely Otunba Adeniyi Adebayo, Dr Kayode Fayemi, Ayodele Fayose and Segun Oni  have all publicly declared support for Oyebanji. For Adebayo and Fayemi in particular, Oyebanji’s succeess is the survival of the legacy the duo nurtured to preserve progressive governance for the development needs of Ekiti people as a monument for progressive politics in Ekiti State.

Except for Prof Kolapo Olusola Eleka, all former deputy governors, majority of former House of Assembly members and cabinet members, all serving House of Assembly members and cabinet members, including all former and serving Senators and House of Representatives members,  are rooting for Oyebanji.The supporters of these National Assembly members are all supporting Oyebanji’s aspiration too. Same for former and serving members of the House of Assembly. Also, all chairmen in the 38 local councils, all the councillors and political appointees at the grassroots are working with their supporters for the same purpose.
Significantly, on July 28, 2025, all these leaders, including large crowds of supporters among whom were members of the civil society and professional groups, attended a rally in Ado-Ekiti to endorse Oyebanji for second term in office. No other aspirants come near these records to mobilise support for primary election to pick the governorship candidate.

In case of fifth column conspiracy that can uphend the calculations for Oyebanji’s victory, both intra-party and inter-party oppositions are miserably weak to upset the apple cart. Reasons are not far-fetched: recent defections to APC from other opposition parties were all manifestly motivated to lend support for Oyebanji and no one else. As fifth columnists fiddle with their conspiracies, new entrants are available to feel the void. All of them will campaign among APC members to vote at party primaries to support the aspiration of their motivator to join APC. No other aspirant enjoys that advantage. For the first time in Ekiti State, opposition parties are raising campaign platforms canvassing support for Oyebanji even in the governor’s support base among APC members.

Again, the state party structure control is in the firm grips of the former governors who have voiced support for Oyebanji. The bastion of party supremacy that runs on iron-cast system to preserve its ethos, mission, vision and leadership focus to serve the people resides with these former governors and other top party leaders, who have not hidden their preference for Oyebanji. This was demonstrated recently when the State Executive Council (EXCO) of APC made it plain that the party is sponsoring one aspirant, namely Oyebanji, to carry the banner of the party in the governorship election.

For emphasis, the Ekiti APC EXCO vowed recently that it was resolute in its decision to sponsor only the aspirants that are known in the party system for their unceasing support for the party’s organs and who are known to satisfy all the guiding rules that allow members to contest election under its platform. No other aspirant comes near Oyebanji in this regard.

This traditional leadership support for the emergence of a governorship candidate will play a role here like in Lagos. If history is our guide, no candidate in any state in Nigeria has ever won  the governorship ticket without the support of the state party leadership. Lagos and Edo are our guides here, as it was only the time that  leadership squabbles ripped through the leadership cohesion needed for victory that the party’s candidates lost to the opposition. APC must have learnt its lessons!

For instance in Kano, APC lost the 2023 guber election to the NNPP not because of the incompetence or incapacity of its candidate, Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna, but because of internal crisis and disregard for the party structure in the state.

Ahmad Abba Dangata, a former APC youth leader aspirant in Kano, said at the time that his party lost the election due to an internal crisis. No such division is present in the leadership ranks and the entire system of Ekiti APC ahead of both primary and July 20, 2026 governorship polls.

Also, the APC ruling party in Kano paid a little attention to the sentiments of the civil society, particularly the workforce, whose interest was flagrantly dismissed by the party leadership. The party paid dearly for this in the governorship election, as workers, who constituted the largest voting bloc in Kano politics, turned against APC in favour of Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso’s NNPP governorship candidate. But in Ekiti State, the organised labour has been counting their gains under Oyebanji and have vowed to vote enmasse for the governor in the July 2026 poll.

The workers, who have been touting the Supreme Court’s judgment giving teeth to workers to support the government of the day that defends their interests as part of loyalty to the government, according to the service rules, have spoken in clear terms that Oyebanji’s pro-workers stance has delivered workers’ support for the governor ahead of the governorship poll.
Tradionally in Ekiti State during governorship elections, strategic support bases and voting bloc, such as workers’unions, market associations and artisan groups exist that determine who among the candidates will win. It is therefore not difficult to assess the acceptability of the likely winner ahead of the election. When  all these groups mass into a frontline campaign platform before election for a particular candidate,  you can predict accurately who takes the cake. The question is; for now who among the contestants controls these groups? Apparently, Oyebanji takes the lead.

For instance, recently the organised Labour in Ekiti State namely;  Ekiti State branch of the Nigeria Union of Teachers (NUT), Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Nigeria Union of Local Governments Employees (NULGE), stormed Abuja in solidarity with Oyebanji while submitting his governorship nomination form at the National Secretariat of APC, where they poured out their hearts in praises for the governor for fulfilling his campaign promises to Ekiti workers.
They listed various goodies that workers are enjoying for the first time in history of Ekiti State under Oyebanji’s leadership and pledged they would continue to support the governor, including voting enmasse for him in the 2026 governorship election, having demonstrated faith and trust in the relationship between the government and workers. In a sharp phrase while speaking in Abuja, State Chairman of NLC, Kolapo Olatunde, said: “Governor Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji is manufactured by God for Ekiti workers.” He vowed that Ekiti workers will  never gamble with their lives with other aspirants.

Even though workers have no role in the party primary election, their preference for Oyebanji is enough incentive to sway support among party members for an aspirant that has the support of the largest voting bloc in the state to win both the primary and governorship elections.

Another strength that is going for Oyebanji is that Ekiti State is the most stable for APC across the South West,  which is expected to continue, leading to success for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s second term bid efforts because a stable APC in the zone for Tinubu is a good start for his second term election victory. The feat was traceable to Oyebanji’s initiatives in rallying members for a common objective of ensuring President Tinubu’s success in his second term election, just like he did in the 2023 presidential poll that returned a landmark success for the President.

Another plus for Oyebanji is the  prevailing peace and security in Ekiti State primarily achieved through his proactiveness in tackling security challenges in the state. Heavy funding and establishment of forest rangers has greatly helped in taming the menace of kidnapping and other criminal activities across the state, which residents are celebrating as one of his premier achievements.
Now that the opposition leaders and members, including workers, professional groups, members of the academia and artisans, among others, have vowed to support Oyebanji, it is evident that no hurdles are stacked against Governor Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji in the 2025 governorship election in Ekiti State.

Besides, Ekiti State governorship election, no doubt, presents a golden opportunity for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to market his pro-democracy credentials to the world as the incoming INEC chairman braces to set records for himself and the nation’s electoral integrity. With the clear lead that Oyebanji maintains, it will be a mission impossible to reenact INEC’s 2003 and Ekiti 2009 electoral heists that claimed the lives and limbs of Ekiti people, particularly in the 2009 rerun poll in what turned out a dark spot on the nation’s electoral integrity.

Of great importance is the Ekiti South Senatorial factor. The zone has never produced the governor. The tension created by that reality reached a boiling point when Ekiti South Agenda was floated before the JKF’s second term. But top politicians from the zone are loyal members of APC who will anyways accept party’s decisions. That was responsible for the full support demonstrated when virtually all top leaders lined up behind Governor Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji to win his election.
That singular demonstration of loyalty has earned the zone much respect across the state, so much so that even the people from the North and Central Senatorial districts are now openly calling for justice for the South after Oyebanji’s second term in 2030.
On this score, the people of the South will naturally support Oyebanji for second term of four years to enable them have a bite at the governorship cake in Ekiti State in 2030 instead of voting for another man from the North or Central zone, who will legitimately seek second term, thus further denying the South for another eight years, which has potential to cause crisis within the party. To prevent internal convulsions, the popular opinion in APC is to support Oyebanji who has only four years to spend in office instead of gambling with other candidates that will later seek a second term.

All these are critical indices that the national leadership of APC will consider in addition to the outcome of the primary election to settle for the governorship candidate. And here Oyebanji holds the ace!

• Olujobi writes from Ado-Ekiti